China Market
China's foreign trade situation in 2012 outlook
From the current situation analysis, development of China's foreign trade next year with a lot of favorable conditions, but still more external uncertainties, economic factors and non-economic factors are intertwined, the domestic factor costs tend to continue upward trend, increasing pressure on business, foreign trade situation is not optimistic.Next year China's foreign trade development of the favorable conditions are:
1, the overall world economic recovery trend will continue
At present, the slow recovery of world economy still continued the trend, market confidence has increased, international economic and financial crisis caused by the conflicts and problems have been alleviated, private consumption, cross-border investment and global trade are in varying degrees, to restore; countries to stimulate economic growth direction has not changed, the major economies to stimulate economic policies was delayed out of the recent United States and Japan have announced a new stimulus package, although in Europe to proceed with fiscal austerity, but the implementation of quantitative easing monetary policy, the world economy "double dip" may is not, recovery will continue. Particularly in emerging markets and developing countries is still relatively strong economic growth, domestic demand growth in the larger space, to further deepen economic and trade cooperation with China will help further develop our business in emerging markets.
2, multilateral and bilateral economic and trade cooperation is still the mainstream
Despite the severe impact of the international financial crisis, but the development of economic globalization, the basic situation has not changed, multilateral and bilateral economic and trade cooperation is still the mainstream of international trade and economic relations. First, the difficulties encountered in the world economy, when no country spared the need to strengthen cooperation and jointly promote the development of international trade and world economic recovery. Countries have to expand exports as the primary means to boost their economies, but also determines the need to strengthen international economic and trade cooperation, generally do not want to, but also not easy to provoke trade disputes. Second, the WTO, the Group of 20 summit and other multilateral mechanisms, more robust, bound by the rules and mechanisms has been enhanced, not only help promote the countries to strengthen cooperation and promote the continued development of international trade, but also helps prevent individual countries implement beggar thy neighbor trade policies, leading to a vicious competition, even a trade war.
3, the domestic economy will maintain steady and rapid development
This year, China adheres to the implementation of the response of the international financial crisis package to accelerate economic restructuring and development pattern, and the national economy continue to move in the expected direction of macro regulation and control, to the good momentum has been further consolidated, to appear from the rebound to the good signs of steady growth transformation. "Second five" planning and implementation will give new impetus to reinvigorate the economy, urbanization, industrialization and accelerate the development and upgrading of consumption structure and encourage private capital investment, and promote coordinated regional development will provide strong support for economic development, China's economy is expected to remain stable rapid development. Meanwhile, the first two years of the international financial crisis has taken a series of steady exports in line with WTO rules, policies and measures to expand imports will remain stable overall, but also conducive to sustained and stable growth of foreign trade.
4, the domestic enterprises to enhance competitiveness and vitality
The international financial crisis, Chinese companies face a serious impact. After this round of crises, companies continue to improve the overall international competitiveness, vitality has been enhanced to speed up structural adjustment, product quality, technological content and added value further. From the current situation, a strong international competitiveness of Chinese enterprises, corporate orders more adequate. First, China's major export industries in the international division has formed a long chain, high concentration and the advantages of economies of scale, infrastructure and support services more comprehensive, integrated enterprise is still more obvious advantages. Second, China's export products cover a wide range, from the obvious advantages of the traditional labor-intensive products to high-tech electromechanical products and hi-tech products, anti-foreign demand volatility and ability to spread risk, is conducive to maintaining the overall stability of exports.
At the same time, we must clearly see the development of foreign trade also face more difficulties and problems are:
1, the marked slowdown in world economic recovery, external demand growth momentum is still insufficient
From the current situation, although the situation has not changed the world economic recovery, but uncertainty still more, a longer period may be low levels. Since the second quarter of this year, due to massive stimulus policies expire or effects gradually weakened, the United States, Japan's economic recovery is slowing down, although the European economic recovery than expected, but the internal imbalances, subsequent sluggish growth. Especially the United States and Europe and other developed economies, the unemployment rate remains at historically high levels, the real estate market downturn, capacity utilization is generally lower than normal level before the crisis, consumption and investment demand is still weak; government debt burden, limited room for further expansion of fiscal policy ; monetary policy continued to expand, there is likely to fall into a liquidity trap, it is difficult to substantially promote the real economy. Brazil, India, Russia and other emerging economies, although to maintain rapid growth, but inflationary pressure, the risk of asset bubbles rise faster currency appreciation, the downside risks are accumulating.
The current round of economic recovery and structural adjustment are intertwined in many countries, new energy, bio-medicine, environmental protection and other strategic emerging industries invest a lot of high hopes and R & D funding, but because there is a serious national development model path dependence, restructuring can not be overnight. So far, strategic and emerging industry has not made substantial technological breakthroughs, realize industrialization and economies of scale even more arduous task in the short term is difficult to lead and support the world economy. Therefore, the world economic recovery will be a long and tortuous process, the international market demand growth next year is limited.
2, the national self-care tend to be more obvious trade protectionism continues to heat up
This year, the economic recovery process to further divide the U.S. and Europe and Japan, macroeconomic policies of major economies tend to strengthen self-care, rising trade protectionism. Recently, the U.S. dollar devaluation, has led to Japan, Korea, Thailand and other countries intervene in currency markets, "currency war" intensified. In the medium term, the dollar will continue to decline, exacerbated by the game of major currencies, rising business risk, is bound to affect international trade. Weak demand in the international market, international competition cases, the abuse of trade remedy measures the U.S. and Europe, and strengthen the green, the new energy industry and electronic information products, trade protection. China, the world's largest exporter, as the main target of international trade protectionism. Recently, the China trade friction suffered from textile, light industry and other low value-added industries to new energy, electronic information and other high-tech, high value-added industries spread from the specific product level to industrial policy, exchange rate and other macro-level extension of the trend more pronounced. September 16, the European Commission launched data cards in China countervailing investigations, involving about 41 billion U.S. dollars, so far China has not only become the biggest hit involving trade remedy investigations of the EU for the first time on the same product at the same time three kinds of Chinese trade remedy investigations, international trade remedy practice is extremely rare. Can be expected next year, Chinese enterprises will face more trade friction situation is complex. In addition, the United States and Europe and other short-term exports to China is difficult to actually cancel the unreasonable control measures will also affect China to expand imports.
3, the rising cost of various elements, the pressure continued to increase business
In recent years, the domestic raw material prices, labor costs, especially since the more obvious this year, companies have felt greater pressure. Factor costs will help to speed up economic restructuring and development patterns, and promote transformation and upgrading, but the rise in the short term focus will inevitably squeezed corporate profit margins, positive affect exports and foreign trade development potential. From the current situation analysis, upward pressure on factor costs next year is still larger. First, raw material prices may continue to rise. By the global excess liquidity, the weak dollar and speculation and other factors, international prices of energy resources next year is likely to continue upward, directly contributing to the domestic raw material prices. Meanwhile, the domestic resources and environmental pressures, resource products pricing reform more urgent, but also push up prices of raw materials. Second, labor costs may continue to rise. As of the end of September this year, China has 30 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) raised the minimum wage. Enterprises generally indicated that face greater wage pressures. While the industrial structure and trade structure adjustment will exacerbate the structural problems of labor supply, enterprise "hard labor" issue is difficult to avoid. Third, the energy saving costs. Currently, the country increase energy conservation efforts, may help to conserve resources, protect the environment, the objective will be to increase production and operation costs.
4, international market more competitive, enterprises are facing increased competitive pressure
The international financial crisis, the United States and Europe and other developed economies, attaches great importance to the real economy, hoping to stimulate domestic economic recovery. Many countries, especially this year, hopes to increase exports to boost its economy, have to take appropriate policy measures. United States and Europe and so has introduced the "Award of limits into" measures to implement the "re-industrialization", to encourage industry return, the U.S. Obama administration is proposed five-year "export multiplier" program. Slow recovery in the world economy, international markets against the background of weak demand growth, countries compete for the international market will become more competitive. On the one hand, the U.S. and Europe and other developed countries attach great importance to exports, with China in high-tech, high value-added exports is bound to intensify competition in the area. On the other hand, more and more developing countries into the global economy, participate in international division of labor, growing competitiveness, will be China's traditional industries and products pose a direct challenge and competition. In addition, many countries use currency devaluation means to boost the economy, promoting exports, RMB appreciation pressure, corporate foreign exchange risk and competitive pressures are increasing.
Considering various factors, China's foreign trade in 2012 will continue to maintain growth, but growth may be down. Therefore, to properly handle and maintain a stable growth of foreign trade development mode to speed up the relationship. We must see the development of foreign trade is facing domestic and international environment, the complexity and uncertainty, and implementation of stable export, import expansion policies and measures to maintain stable development of foreign trade; also fully aware of the importance of foreign trade structure adjustment and urgency speed up the development mode of foreign trade, optimize foreign trade structure, foster international cooperation and multilateral new advantages. At the same time, further improve the import promotion policies to promote trade facilitation, an increase of advanced technology, key parts and components imported and domestic materials shortages, efforts to improve the trade balance.